🇺🇸

Federal Reserve

USD · Official Website

Latest Statement

⚖️ Neutral

2026-03-18

The Federal Reserve's recent minutes indicate a cautious outlook amid rising inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions, particularly from the Middle East conflict, which has led to increased energy prices. While market expectations for rate cuts have been pushed back, there remains a significant probability of rate hikes in the near future, reflecting heightened uncertainty in financial markets.

Concerns over AI disruptions and Middle East conflict have influenced market expectations and asset prices.
Near-term inflation projections have increased, with a notable rise in crude oil prices impacting the macroeconomic outlook.
Market expectations for federal funds rate cuts have been delayed, with a growing probability of rate hikes next year.
Treasury yields have risen, particularly at the short end, reflecting increased uncertainty and changes in investor positioning.

Bank Profile

Mandate

Dual mandate: maximum employment and price stability (2% PCE inflation)

Decision Types

Federal funds rate target range, Quantitative easing/tightening, Forward guidance

Policy Instruments

Open market operations, Discount window, Reserve requirements, Interest on reserves

Target Indicators

PCE inflation (2%), Unemployment rate, GDP growth, Core PCE

Communication Style

Data-dependent, measured, forward guidance focused with dot plot projections

Committee

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) - 12 voting members

Economic Indicators

Policy Rate	3.62%
EUR/USD	1.1525
GDP Growth	1.8%
M2 Growth	-1.2%
10Y Yield	4.29%
2y10y Spread	+0.51%
Credit Spread	0.63%

HISTORICAL TRENDS

Policy Rate

FX Rate

CPI

GDP

10Y Yield

2Y-10Y Spread

Stance

Key Commodities

Top traded commodities for United States

Commodity	Price	1D	30D
WTI Crude Oil	114.01 USD/barrel	+0.7%	+71.0%
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)	3.04 USD/MMBtu	+6.3%	-3.5%
Copper	12,951.34 USD/mt	-0.3%	+55.1%

Recent Statements

Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement 🕊️ Dovish

2026-03-18

⚡ Rate

↑0 ↓0 →1

🗣 Dissent

↑0 ↓1

📝 Classified Sentences

🗣 Dissent Dovishmp_interest_rate

"Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting."

⚡ Rate Holdmp_interest_rate

"In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent."

The Fed - Monetary Policy ⚖️ Neutral

2026-01-28

Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement 🕊️ Dovish

2026-01-28

⚡ Rate

↑0 ↓0 →1

🗣 Dissent

↑0 ↓1

📝 Classified Sentences

🗣 Dissent Dovishmp_interest_rate

"Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting."

⚡ Rate Holdmp_interest_rate

"In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent."

The Fed - Monetary Policy 🕊️ Dovish

2025-12-10

⚡ Rate

↑0 ↓2 →0

🗣 Dissent

↑1 ↓1

📝 Classified Sentences

🗣 Dissent Hawkishmp_interest_rate

"two preferred to leave the target range unchanged"

⚡ Rate Cutmp_interest_rate

"In support of the Committee's goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, nine members agreed to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent."

⚡ Rate Cutmp_interest_rate

"In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent."

🗣 Dissent Dovishmp_interest_rate

"the other preferred to lower the target range 1/2 percentage point"

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