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Central Bank of Russia

RUB ยท Official Website

Latest Statement

๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ Dovish
Summary of the Discussion on the Key Rate
2025-12-29

The Central Bank of Russia's discussion highlighted a recent decline in inflation rates, with expectations for year-end inflation to fall below the previously forecasted range. Participants noted volatility in price growth, driven by fluctuations in specific commodity prices, and agreed that monetary policy adjustments may be necessary to address evolving economic conditions.

โšก Rate
โ†‘0 โ†“3 โ†’0
๐Ÿ“ Classified Sentences
โšก Rate Cutmp_interest_rate
"Based on the analysis of data and its comparison with the October forecast of the Bank of Russia, the majority of participants expressed support for a reduction of the key rate by 50 basis points to 16.00% per annum."
โšก Rate Cutmp_interest_rate
"However, the majority of participants suggested lowering the key rate by 50 basis points."
โšก Rate Cutmp_interest_rate
"As a result of the discussion, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate by 50 basis points to 16.00% per annum on December 19, 2025."

Bank Profile

Mandate
Price stability (4% CPI), financial stability
Decision Types
Key rate, Reserve requirements, FX interventions
Policy Instruments
Key rate, Standing facilities, Open market operations, FX operations
Target Indicators
CPI inflation (4%), Inflation expectations, Credit growth, Ruble exchange rate
Communication Style
Detailed statements, monetary policy report, press conferences with Governor
Committee
Board of Directors - 15 members (Chair + 14 Board members)

Economic Indicators

Policy Rate14.25%
USD/RUB77.48
GDP Growth0.2%
M2 Growth24.4%
10Y Yield7.62%
2y10y Spread-7.46%
HISTORICAL TRENDS
Policy Rate
21.014.2
FX Rate
78.972.5
CPI
13.72.88
GDP
5.87-2.65
10Y Yield
11.67.62
Stance
1000.00

Key Commodities

Top traded commodities for Russia

Commodity Price 1D 30D
Brent Crude Oil 81.62 USD/barrel +9.8% -17.0%
Wheat 199.65 USD/mt -9.6% -13.1%
Natural Gas (EU) 15.09 USD/MMBtu -6.6% +33.5%

Recent Statements

Statistics โš–๏ธ Neutral
2025-12-22
Bank of Russia cuts the key rate by 50 bp to 16.00% p.a. ๐Ÿฆ… Hawkish
2025-12-19
โšก Rate
โ†‘0 โ†“1 โ†’0
๐Ÿ”ฎ Guidance
โ†‘2 โ†“0
๐Ÿ“ Classified Sentences
๐Ÿ”ฎ Guidance Hawkishmp_interest_rate
"The Bank of Russia will maintain monetary conditions as tight as required to return inflation to the target."
๐Ÿ”ฎ Guidance Hawkishmp_interest_rate
"This means that monetary policy will remain tight for a long period."
โšก Rate Cutmp_interest_rate
"On 19 December 2025, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to cut the key rate by 50 basis points to 16.00% per annum."
Summary of the Key Rate Discussion ๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ Dovish
2025-11-06
โšก Rate
โ†‘0 โ†“1 โ†’0
๐Ÿ“ Classified Sentences
โšก Rate Cutmp_interest_rate
"on 24 October 2025, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to cut the key rate by 50 bp to 16.50% per annum"
Bank of Russia cuts the key rate by 50 basis points to 16.50% per annum ๐Ÿฆ… Hawkish
2025-10-24
โšก Rate
โ†‘0 โ†“1 โ†’0
๐Ÿ”ฎ Guidance
โ†‘2 โ†“0
๐Ÿ“ Classified Sentences
๐Ÿ”ฎ Guidance Hawkishmp_interest_rate
"The Bank of Russia will maintain monetary conditions as tight as necessary to return inflation to the target."
๐Ÿ”ฎ Guidance Hawkishmp_interest_rate
"In the baseline scenario, this also implies an average key rate in the range of 13.0โ€“15.0% per annum in 2026 and means a long period of tight monetary policy."
โšก Rate Cutmp_interest_rate
"On 24 October 2025, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to cut the key rate by 50 basis points to 16.50% per annum."
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