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Banco Central do Brasil

BRL · Official Website

Latest Statement

🕊️ Dovish

BCB COPOM Minutes - Meeting 281: 281st Meeting - September 15-16, 2026

2026-09-16

The Brazilian Central Bank's COPOM committee notes a gradual moderation in economic activity with resilient labor markets, while inflation remains above target despite recent deceleration. The committee maintains a cautious stance given external uncertainties from geopolitical tensions and advanced economy monetary policy shifts, emphasizing that demand cooling is essential for inflation convergence to target.

Domestic inflation has decelerated but remains above the tolerance band upper limit, with 2026-2027 expectations at 4.9% and 4.3% respectively, while the Q1 2028 projection stands at 3.2%
Economic activity is moderating as anticipated, particularly in cyclical sectors, with GDP growth decelerating more intensely in demand components sensitive to the economic cycle
Labor market remains tight with historically low unemployment rates, though occupation rate growth is decelerating and real wage growth continues despite nominal wage deceleration
External environment remains highly uncertain due to Middle East geopolitical tensions and monetary policy divergence in advanced economies, requiring caution regarding commodity price volatility

⚡ Rate

↑0 ↓1 →0

📝 Classified Sentences

⚡ Rate Cutmp_interest_rate

"The Copom decided to reduce the basic interest rate to 13.75% per annum, and understands that this decision is compatible with the strategy of convergence of inflation towards the target over the relevant horizon."

Bank Profile

Mandate

Price stability (inflation targeting), financial stability

Decision Types

Selic rate (overnight rate), Reserve requirements, Forward guidance

Policy Instruments

Open market operations, Reserve requirements, FX swaps, Rediscount window

Target Indicators

IPCA inflation (3%±1.5%), GDP growth, Exchange rate, Inflation expectations

Communication Style

Detailed COPOM statements, balance of risks assessment, forward guidance on rate path

Committee

COPOM (Comitê de Política Monetária) - 9 members (Governor + 8 Directors)

Economic Indicators

Policy Rate	13.75%
USD/BRL	5.1818
GDP Growth	-3.3%
M2 Growth	12.3%
10Y Yield	13.96%
2y10y Spread	-0.04%

HISTORICAL TRENDS

Policy Rate

FX Rate

CPI

GDP

10Y Yield

2Y-10Y Spread

Stance

Key Commodities

Top traded commodities for Brazil

Commodity	Price	1D	30D
Soybeans	442.45 USD/mt	+6.7%	-2.2%
Iron Ore	101.60 USD/mt	-2.1%	-25.6%

Recent Statements

Central Bank of Brazil Copom Statement - Meeting 281: 281st Meeting - Copom Reduces Selic Rate to 13.75% per annum 🕊️ Dovish

2026-09-16

⚡ Rate

↑0 ↓1 →0

🔮 Guidance

↑1 ↓1

📝 Classified Sentences

🔮 Guidance Hawkishmp_inflation

"The Committee will continue to monitor the evolution of the scenario in order to maintain adequate restriction to ensure inflation convergence to the target."

🔮 Guidance Dovishmp_inflation

"As a result of the dynamics of risks associated with price developments, the Committee reaffirms that the total magnitude of the calibration cycle will be established in light of new information to ensure inflation convergence to the target."

⚡ Rate Cutmp_interest_rate

"The Copom decided to reduce the basic interest rate to 13.75% per annum, and understands that this decision is compatible with the strategy of converging inflation to around the target over the relevant horizon."

BCB COPOM Communiqué - Meeting 280: 280th Meeting - Copom reduces the Selic rate to 14.00% per annum 🕊️ Dovish

2026-08-05

⚡ Rate

↑0 ↓1 →0

📝 Classified Sentences

⚡ Rate Cutmp_interest_rate

"The Copom decided to reduce the basic interest rate to 14.00% per year."

BCB COPOM Minutes - Meeting 280: 280th Meeting - August 4-5, 2026 ⚖️ Neutral

2026-08-05

⚡ Rate

↑0 ↓1 →0

🔮 Guidance

↑1 ↓0

📝 Classified Sentences

🔮 Guidance Hawkishmp_interest_rate

"The Committee will continue to incorporate new information and monitor the evolution of the scenario in order to maintain the appropriate restriction to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target."

⚡ Rate Cutmp_interest_rate

"The Copom decided to reduce the basic interest rate to 14.00% per year, and understands that this decision is compatible with the strategy of converging inflation towards the target over the relevant horizon."

BCB COPOM Minutes - Meeting 279: 279th Meeting - June 16-17, 2026 🕊️ Dovish

2026-06-17

⚡ Rate

↑0 ↓1 →0

📝 Classified Sentences

⚡ Rate Cutmp_interest_rate

"The Copom decided to reduce the basic interest rate to 14.25% per year, and understands that this decision is compatible with the strategy of converging inflation towards the target, considering the observations in paragraph 21 above."

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